r2b Power Market Outlook
Long-term development of the German electricity market and electricity price forecasts through 2050
The r2b Power Market Outlook (r2b PMO) provides a robust, long-term outlook on the development of the German electricity supply system and electricity prices for the German bidding zone – based on the established European energy system model SESAM. For many years, SESAM has been one of the leading models for electricity market and price analyses in Germany and Europe. The insights derived from it have made a significant contribution to the design of energy policy frameworks and support companies and investors in strategic and operational decision-making.
With the r2b PMO, you receive a consistent long-term power market scenario, recognised by banks and investors that incorporates the developments currently expected for all relevant driving factors. This provides you with a robust basis for decision-making in an increasingly volatile market environment and allows you to focus on successful investments and strategies on the path towards a CO₂-free future. The r2b PMO delivers up-to-date insights and detailed forecasts – from annual to hourly resolution – up to 2050.
Your benefits with the r2b PMO
The r2b Power Market Outlook helps you to understand and assess developments in the electricity market. Based on consistent scenarios and detailed price forecasts, it provides guidance for medium- and long-term planning as well as for the assessment of investments and transactions. At the same time, it enables you to reflect on and validate your own market views in the context of robust analyses.
In addition, you gain a clear understanding of potential market developments and the resulting opportunities and risks for your business. This creates the basis for developing resilient strategies in trading, procurement and investment, and for positioning yourself securely in a dynamic market environment.
Highlights of the r2b PMO
Three weather scenarios are modelled on the basis of different historical weather years:
- Reference pathway: The weather year 2009 serves as the reference pathway, as it is particularly well suited as an average weather year.
- Opportunity/risk pathways: To reflect a range of opportunities and risks with regard to weather impacts, the weather years 2010 and 2017 are also modelled.
In addition to conventional power plants and demand-side management potential, our SESAM energy system model also determines the expansion pathway for renewable energy sources – onshore wind and photovoltaics – as well as hydrogen electrolysis capacities endogenously within the model.
To represent sector coupling between the electricity system and the district heating sector, including CHP and power-to-heat, 20 separate, standardised district heating networks are modelled as integral components of the SESAM energy system model.
The r2b baseline scenario: Market-driven Catch-up Pathway
As part of our r2b baseline scenario, ‘Market-driven Catch-up Pathway’, we outline an energy transition pathway that initially falls short of the 2030 targets. From the 2030s onwards, however, the expansion of renewable energy gains noticeable momentum, driven by market-based investments and the increasing use of flexibility options.
The rise in electricity demand is initially delayed, but later accelerates significantly as transport, heating and hydrogen production become electrified. Industrial relocation is partly cushioned by pragmatic industrial policy measures, allowing energy supply and industrial transformation to progress step by step in tandem.
What you receive
The r2b PMO documentation includes the following model results for the period from 2026 to 2050:
Electricity price forecast
- Hourly wholesale electricity prices
- Monthly and annual price indices
Development of renewable energy market values
- Market values and market value factors for photovoltaics and wind power
Additional key figures
- Electricity and heat generation balances
- CO₂ emissions from electricity generation and CHP heat generation
- Installed capacities by energy source and technology
Your r2b Power Market Outlook
Use our price projections and model results for your own analyses. You will receive clearly structured presentations and analyses in a presentation tailored to your target audience, as well as all relevant data and results in Excel.
Clearly visualised
Intuitive charts and key figures for management and stakeholders provide quick orientation and support well-founded decisions.
Regularly updated
Our r2b PMO is updated quarterly and reflects current energy policy developments. In the event of exceptional market changes, we provide additional updates.
Interested in our Power Market Outlook?
We would be happy to answer your questions and provide you with your first r2b PMO.
Get in touch!
Christoph Schmitz
Member of the Extended Board
E-Mail
christoph.schmitz@r2b-energy.com
Phone
+49 175 8425543