Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations

created October 2021

Felix Müsgens, partner at r2b energy consulting, has published an article in the renowned journal “Applied Energy”.

The article “Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations” presents a method for short term photovoltaic and wind feed-in forecasts in 15 minutes resolution with low forecasting errors, which can be applied worldwide.

The key result of the article are:

  • The applied methodology (dynamic elastic net) combined with advanced, professional forecasts yields low errors (benchmarked extensively against the literature)
  • Dynamic data preprocessing is an important step that deserves more attention (and transparency)
  • Forecast quality increased greatly over time
  • New research should analyze other regions and systems

You can find the complete article here.