Felix Müsgens, partner at r2b energy consulting, has published an article in the renowned journal “Applied Energy”.
The article “Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations” presents a method for short term photovoltaic and wind feed-in forecasts in 15 minutes resolution with low forecasting errors, which can be applied worldwide.
The key result of the article are:
- The applied methodology (dynamic elastic net) combined with advanced, professional forecasts yields low errors (benchmarked extensively against the literature)
- Dynamic data preprocessing is an important step that deserves more attention (and transparency)
- Forecast quality increased greatly over time
- New research should analyze other regions and systems
You can find the complete article here.